Russia loses ability to send humans into space for first time in 60 years
On 27 November 2025, the Soyuz MS-28 - a crewed spacecraft using a Soyuz-2.1a rocket - successfully launched from Site 31/6 at Baikonur.
Delivering two cosmonauts and a NASA astronaut safely to the ISS - immediately after liftoff an extraordinary structural failure emerged on the ground: the “mobile service cabin” (the service-access platform beneath the rocket) collapsed and plunged into the flame-trench of the launch pad.
Preliminary analysis suggests the platform was either not properly retracted or secured before ignition. Though mission reports indicated that 44 minutes before launch the cabin was moved into its “nook,” it apparently was not locked or the locks failed under the stress. • When the first-stage engines fired, the pressure difference under the rocket forced the cabin out of position and caused it to collapse. It fell roughly from a height of 20 meters, into the flame trench - with destructive force.
The only currently active Russian launch pad capable of crewed missions is effectively out of operation. Why This Marks a Historic First - Russia Temporarily Grounded Because Site 31/6 was, in practice, the only pad Russia was using for human (Soyuz) or station-cargo (Progress) launches since the retirement of the older, historic pad (the so-called “Gagarin’s Start”).
The problem here is not that Russians can't get to the ISS, as most US missions have at least one Russian on board, just like most Russian missions have one american on board, the problem is with staffing the ISS, as NASA really wants ISS to be fully stacked during the last year before decommission, but Russian docking modules are not compatible with the international standard SpaceX, Boeing or Japan are using. I guess SpaceX could adapt the Russian docking port, but we are talking about putting a lot of strain on SpaceX, both for increasing amount of Cargo Dragon capsules, and to make modifications to the docking ring.
According to multiple sources, the collapse means Russia has - for the first time since the early days of Soviet human spaceflight in the 1960s - no reliable capability to launch people into orbit. This isn’t just a technical hiccup: the damaged infrastructure (the service cabin / access platform) is central to all preparations for crewed Soyuz and cargo Progress launches. Without it, no safe pre-launch procedures can be completed. Fixing it is non-trivial. Experts estimate repairs could take months to up to two years - partly because this kind of service structure is heavy, complex, and requires precision fabrication or spare parts that might be far from trivial to assemble and re-certify. As a result, upcoming planned launches - including cargo runs for the ISS - are now at serious risk. Why This Makes SpaceX Suddenly Central - And Why ISS Reliance Shifts to Private Providers With Russia’s Soyuz (and Progress) capability offline - possibly for a prolonged period - the burden of crew and cargo transport to the ISS now increasingly falls on non-Russian providers.
Chief among them is SpaceX, using its privately operated Crew Dragon and cargo variants.
SpaceX already has demonstrated reliability and has ongoing missions to the ISS; with Soyuz grounded, its systems become the primary lifeline for station crew rotations, emergency crew rescue, and supply deliveries. • The sudden shift underscores how privatization and diversification of access to space - once seen as auxiliary or competitive - now serve as critical resilience for the entire ISS ecosystem. • In effect, a single private company has become indispensable for sustaining continuous human presence on the ISS - a role that for decades was shared (or dominated) by national space agencies, including Russia. This development may well reframe how global space cooperation is organized. If Russia remains out of the crewed-launch game for a long period, the dominance of private (and non-Russian) providers could grow not just as alternate providers - but as de facto gatekeepers. What This Could Mean for the Future
If repairs take many months (or longer), Russia may lose relevance in crewed low-earth-orbit transport - perhaps redirecting its space ambitions elsewhere, or delaying any human‐rated domestic orbital station plans. • For the ISS and its partner agencies, the reliance on SpaceX (or other non-Russian partners) may become institutionalized - not just as a stopgap, but as a long-term foundation. This could accelerate privatized access to orbit even more.
Politically, the incident is a blow to the prestige of Russia's space program.
The failure was not caused by a rocket malfunction, enemy action, or natural disaster - but by a structural failure in ground infrastructure. That raises uncomfortable questions about maintenance, safety culture, funding, and priorities. • Strategically, this may incentivize other spacefaring nations and organizations (e.g. those behind the European Space Agency, or emerging actors) to deepen cooperation with private firms - to avoid having critical capabilities tied to a single national infrastructure that might collapse again. The Broader Picture - A New Era for Human Spaceflight The collapse at Baikonur is more than a technical accident: it may mark a turning point. For over six decades, Russia (and before that the Soviet Union) held an unbroken record of launching humans into space. That streak is now interrupted. At the same time, the event reveals a deeper reality of modern spaceflight: the reach of a single rocket’s blast can end more than a mission - it can ground an entire nation’s human-spaceflight capacity. In that vacuum, private innovators like SpaceX don’t just fill a gap - they become strategic pillars. The days when national pride and geopolitical competition alone drove crewed space access are fading. Instead, the reliability, adaptability and redundancy provided by diversified actors may define humanity’s future in low Earth orbit.
